Open AccessFORECASTING OF SPRING WHEAT YIELD BY METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE TETYUSHSKY DISTRICT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN
Author(s) -
Yu. P. Perevedentsev,
I. D. Davlyatshin,
А А Лукманов,
Айсылу Билаловна Мустафина
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
vestnik udmurtskogo universiteta. biologiâ, nauki o zemle
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2413-2489
pISSN - 2412-9518
DOI - 10.35634/2412-9518-2020-30-4-457-464
Subject(s) - precipitation , yield (engineering) , spring (device) , environmental science , humidity , relative humidity , air temperature , regression analysis , climatology , linear regression , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , mathematics , geography , statistics , geology , engineering , mechanical engineering , materials science , metallurgy
The relationship between the spring wheat yield in the Tetyushsky municipal district of the Republic of Tatarstan and meteorological parameters characterizing the temperature and humidity regime in the 50-year period 1970-2019 is considered. A multiple regression equation is obtained, where the predictors are the yield of spring wheat, and the predictors are the average precipitation for may-June, the average amount of precipitation for the growing season (may-August), precipitation for the year and June, air temperature for June, and the average air temperature for the period may-June. Correlations were found between individual meteorological parameters, as well as between the actual yield and meteorological indicators. It is shown that meteorological conditions (precipitation and air temperature) of the spring-summer period (may-June) have the greatest impact on the crop. Analysis of the regression equations showed that there is a satisfactory agreement between the actual and calculated data on spring wheat yield, which allows using them for predictive purposes.