The Lake Baikal Water Resources and Possible Strategies of its Level Regime Management

Over the recent years the Lake Baikal basin and the lake itself face the developing complicated water/economic situation due to the long-term low water period and inadequately substantiated limitations of the water level fluctuations. The Lake Baikal water resources are used for purposes of power production and water supply, therefore negative environmental phenomena are often associated with probable disturbances of natural hydrological regime. Existing approaches to the Lake Baikal water resources management and recommendations on intensification of its environment-protective aspects have been considered. Dates of the maximal and minimal level periods starting, the level fluctuations amplitude, the lake filling speed, and other parameters significant changing of those can affect the Baikal ecosystem status were used as a set of ecological indicators (limitations). The choice of the Baikal level regime control strategy has been done on the basis of analysis of water/economic ecological indicators-based calculations results. Results of calculations of the water resources availability for different water users and fulfilling of ecosystem requirements expressed as distribution of probabilities of respective indicators of the Lake Baikal level fluctuations are presented. Conclusions on the preference of one of the discussed schemes of the runoff regulation have been made.