Open AccessAssessment of Hydrological and Water Management Characteristics under Conditions of Uncertainty of the Formation Factors
Author(s) -
М. В. Болгов
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii: problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie/vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii : problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2686-8253
pISSN - 1999-4508
DOI - 10.35567/1999-4508-2016-4-1
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , environmental science , reliability (semiconductor) , surface runoff , term (time) , bayesian probability , range (aeronautics) , hydrology (agriculture) , computer science , climatology , statistics , geology , mathematics , ecology , geotechnical engineering , power (physics) , physics , materials science , quantum mechanics , composite material , biology
The main problems of an engineering hydrology connected with the analysis of non-stationary sequences of hydrological characteristics, statistical inauthenticity of estimates, uncertainty of long-term forecasts, taking into account the need of the accounting of anthropogenic factors of the runoff alterations are discussed. The novel complicated hydrological tasks reasons have been analyzed, problems of the extreme events hydrological analysis have been classified, issues of decision making in the various uncertain conditions have been explored. The problem of the input long-term forecast reliability in the process of water management computations has been studied with the Lake Baikal level fluctuations range as a study case. Relevant issues of the hydrological characteristics assessment in the conditions of future climatic changes uncertainty have been considered. The Bayesian method of probabilistic assessment of extreme water consumption and levels on water bodies in conjunction with possibilities of the long-term forecasting based on the atmosphere circulation models are recommended.