Open AccessOn Results of Forecasting of Spring High-water at the Verkhnyaya Ob River in 2015
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii: problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie/vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii : problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2686-8253
pISSN - 1999-4508
DOI - 10.35567/1999-4508-2016-3-5
Subject(s) - snowmelt , environmental science , storm , spring (device) , flood myth , floodplain , hydrology (agriculture) , current (fluid) , term (time) , flooding (psychology) , surface runoff , water year , water level , meteorology , climatology , volume (thermodynamics) , snow , geology , geography , mechanical engineering , geotechnical engineering , engineering , psychology , ecology , oceanography , physics , cartography , archaeology , quantum mechanics , psychotherapist , biology
Problems of the spring high-water-caused floods forecasting for the Verkhnyaya Ob River have been discussed. Results of the medium-term prediction of the first-wave flood volume near the city of Barnaul and the short-term prediction of the spring high-water at the Verkhnyaya Ob in 2015 have been presented. A method based on the revealed connection between snowmelt runoff of the piedmont area and the average snow content index of the current year registered at the low-mountain meteorological stations has been developed for the medium-term prediction of high-water event. The medium-term forecast of the 2015 first-wave flood volume near Barnaul was produced with one month lead time, while short-term water level forecasts for the Ob River range from Fominskoye to Kamen-na-Obi were produced with 3-5 days lead time. Good agreement of the short-term forecasts with the observation data shown that the developed computer one-dimensional model of flows in the Verkhnyaya Ob channel system could be successfully applied for short-term estimation of the floodplain territories flooding of the said Ob ranges during spring high-water periods and rain-storm floods, as well as for determining of the discharge levels for Novosibirsk reservoir. Discrepancies between calculated and field data in respect of water level near Barnaul during the 2015 first-wave flood did not exceed 30 cm.