Open AccessMethodological Basis for Ensemble Hydrological Forecasts
Author(s) -
L. S. Kuchment
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii: problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie/vodnoe hozâjstvo rossii : problemy, tehnologii, upravlenie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2686-8253
pISSN - 1999-4508
DOI - 10.35567/1999-4508-2014-3-2
Subject(s) - ensemble forecasting , ensemble learning , term (time) , computer science , consensus forecast , water resources , environmental science , econometrics , machine learning , mathematics , ecology , physics , quantum mechanics , biology
Methodic basis of ensemble hydrological forecasts and possibilities of their application for water resources system management have been considered. The main features of the ensemble forecasting system structure and methods of obtaining and usage of supplemental information have been described. Methods of the ensemble hydrological forecasts quality and uncertainty assessment have been stated. World experience in practical application of the ensemble forecasting methods for short-term hydrological forecast has been presented. Approaches and results of the ensemble forecasting ideas use for long-term forecasting of spring floods in Russia has been described.