Open AccessGraphing and Measuring COVID-19’s First Wave Impact on the Bolivian Economy: Facing the Unknown.
Author(s) -
Gover Barja
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
revista latinoamericana de desarrollo económico
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2309-9038
pISSN - 2074-4706
DOI - 10.35319/lajed.202136451
Subject(s) - counterfactual thinking , covid-19 , pandemic , economic impact analysis , economics , index (typography) , demographic economics , econometrics , geography , climatology , geology , psychology , medicine , computer science , social psychology , disease , pathology , virology , world wide web , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty) , microeconomics
The Bolivian monthly index of economic activity along with ARMA models are used in an attempt to graph and measure the impact of COVID-19’s pandemic on the Bolivian economy. The accumulated difference between the observed and counterfactual values, show an overall 12.6% loss of economic activity in the 10 months from February to November 2020 of the first COVID-19 wave, with a tilted W-shape short-run recovery just before the beginning of the second wave in December 2020. Breakdown into the twelve Bolivian economic sectors show wide heterogeneity in depth of impact and speeds of recovery during the same period.