Introduction to forecasts for the "great CPC" - demand approach

The creation of the „Polish Great Central Transportation Port” (CPK) is considered already justified despite the fact that no detailed traffic forecast for different scenarios of market development has been created and presented. They are to be prepared in the future. In our Report, we created traffic forecasts for the CPK based on the key market and business assumptions. The airport will focus on transit traffic carried by network carriers. The proper and attractive conditions to serve low cost and charter airlines will not be created. Almost the entire transit traffic from Polish regions will be transported by fast trains. In our versions of forecasts we show how big the differences are between the forecasts that would have to materialize so that the CPK Project may become a market and financial success and the forecasts that we consider realistic. The unique geographical location of the CPK is supposed to be its one of its key assets. We show that this assumption is very far from reality. As part of the CPK Project, an enormous investment in a fast train system which is necessary to transport passengers not only from the Warsaw agglomeration but from almost all Polish regions is very important and in our opinion is rather risky. Nowhere in the world does currently an intermodal aircraft – train traffic system exist of such size and importance. In addition, even very general financial calculations have not been made that would show that the railway part of the project could be profitable. We do not argue that in the future the building of a completely new airport would not be justified and even necessary to take over the current role of Chopin Airport. But first, an effective network of Chopin Airport and other airports - located mainly in Eastern and North-Eastern Poland and dedicated to low cost and charter airlines - should be developed and may be sufficient for many years to come. The plans for the new airport have to be based on realistic market assumptions and consideration must be given to different scenarios of the air transportation market development and of the general economic situation. This is necessary because, as learned from international experience, even if private capital is involved in financing of the investment, the private investors will not agree to take their part of the financial risks demanding hard guarantees from the Government for the volumes of the traffic to be served by the airport.Keywords: Polish Central Transportation Port; Market analysis; Transit traffic; Demand