Open AccessNeural modelling of electricity prices quoted on the Day-Ahead Market of TGE S.A. shaped by environmental and economic factors
Author(s) -
Dariusz Ruciński
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
studia informatica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1731-2264
DOI - 10.34739/si.2020.24.02
Subject(s) - correctness , econometrics , electricity , quality (philosophy) , economics , mean squared error , electricity market , statistics , environmental economics , computer science , mathematics , engineering , algorithm , philosophy , epistemology , electrical engineering
The paper contains the results of research on the impact of the number of factors used to build the Day-Ahead Market model at Polish Power Exchange S.A. Five models with a different number of factors influencing the model were tested. To test the quality of models according to the adopted evaluation criteria, i.e., mean square error and the coefficient of determination for the weighted average prices sold in a given hour of the day, the influence of weather factors, socio-economic factors and energy demand were adopted. The results obtained from the analysis show a relatively high correctness of the simplest of the adopted models, which differs slightly from the best model.