Open AccessSpatial Analysis of Crime in East Java Province in 2019
Author(s) -
Choirul Ummah,
Rini Rahani
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
proceedings of international conference on data science and official statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2809-9842
DOI - 10.34123/icdsos.v2021i1.227
Subject(s) - java , negative binomial distribution , overdispersion , geography , population , demography , quarter (canadian coin) , unemployment , harm , statistics , demographic economics , socioeconomics , economics , economic growth , sociology , political science , law , mathematics , poisson distribution , computer science , archaeology , programming language
Crime is one of the consequences of fluctuations in the economic condition of a country. Crime incidents harm many parties. The number of criminal acts increased in 2019, especially in Sumatra and Java Island. Most provinces experienced an increasing number of criminal acts, one of them was East Java. East Java contributed more than a quarter of the number of crimes throughout Java Island. The number of criminal acts is count data with overdispersion because its variance is higher than its average. This study aims to analyze the number of criminal acts by applying Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). The result shows that GWNBR formed two regional groups based on significant variables. The four independent variables namely the unemployment rate, the number of poor people, the Gini ratio, and the police population ratio have a significant effect on all districts/cities. However, the mean year of schooling shows a significant effect only in certain districts/cities. The GWNBR is the best model in modelling the number of criminal acts in East Java.