Open AccessOn Evaluating Likely Misstatements in Financial Statements of Economic Entities
Author(s) -
М. А. Алексеев,
Vladimir Glinskiy,
Lyudmila Serga,
M. L. Pyatov
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
voprosy statistiki
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2658-5499
pISSN - 2313-6383
DOI - 10.34023/2313-6383-2019-26-7-20-32
Subject(s) - identification (biology) , population , distribution (mathematics) , a priori and a posteriori , actuarial science , finance , accounting , econometrics , economics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , philosophy , botany , demography , epistemology , sociology , biology
The article presents and discusses the results of the research regarding the identification of the user groups of financial statements (internal and/or external). Possible misstatements of financial reporting are aimed at developing the ≪desired≫ behavior of these groups. The authors introduced the following theoretical, methodological, instrumental and informational constraints of the carried-out experiment: financial reporting was postulated as an open system of economic measurement; accounting ≪paradoxes≫, formulated and considered by Sokolov Ya.V., were used as the theoretical basis of the a priori probability of existence of inaccurate accounting data in the information space; the formation of learning samples and the general population was carried based on the reporting data on certain business activities. Concurrent fulfillment of these conditions ensured the correct application of the central limit theorem, resulting in a valid statistical conclusion. The ≪paradoxes≫ were divided into complementary pairs with their subsequent formalization through the relevant financial ratios. Actual series of the financial ratios’ distribution were compiled based on the existent populations. The significance of deviation of the obtained series from the normal probability distribution (Gaussian distribution) was estimated. The multimodality of series of the financial ratios distribution was identified and estimated, suggesting the possibility of the existence of intentional, systematic registration errors, and, as a result, presumable manipulation in accounting (financial) reporting. It was found that some economic entities knowingly tamper with financial results, effectively aggravating the ≪paradoxical≫ state. The directions of probable manipulation were revealed, making it possible to define the user groups, whose professional judgment and decisions are affected by the presumed misstatements. The SKRIN database (financial and accounting reporting of 10.0 thousand of food and beverage manufacturers) and government statistics were used as a basis for research; calculations were made using Statistica12 software.