Open AccessPopulation Borrowing Behavior: Trends and Risks
Author(s) -
I. M. Schneiderman,
Азиза Викторовна Ярашева
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
voprosy statistiki
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2658-5499
pISSN - 2313-6383
DOI - 10.34023/2313-6383-2019-26-3-15-22
Subject(s) - debt , population , currency , inflation (cosmology) , overheating (electricity) , loan , bad debt , economics , business , interest rate , financial system , monetary economics , finance , physics , demography , quantum mechanics , sociology , theoretical physics
The article deals with current issues related to modern processes of lending to the population in Russia. The article aims to identify possible risks and consequences of over-lending to individuals based on the analysis of statistical data. Research objectives include analysing data dynamics of volume of the issued housing loans for the past 13 years, including mortgage loans; tracing the dynamics of household debt (total and for this type of lending) in rubles and foreign currency in macro-regions (Federal districts) of the Russian Federation; and describing the features and trends of car loans in our country. Results of the study revealed an uneven increase in the amount of debt on loans of the population living in different macro-regions of Russia. The authors concluded that the share of personal debt to credit institutions on mortgages « inside » of housing loan debt from 2006 to 2018 has more than tripled. In general, reasons for changes in the credit behaviour of Russians lie in lowered interest rates and the fear of their future growth, chances of refinancing previously taken loans, concerns about rising inflation, pent-up demand for housing and durable goods. A further increase in the growth of consumer loans and the volume of public debt on them may lead to the overheating of the credit market.