Open AccessCOVID MORTALITY MULTIPLIER AND A NEW METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF EXCESS MORTALITY IN 2020-2021
Author(s) -
А.В. Кашепов
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
socialʹno-trudovye issledovaniâ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2658-3712
DOI - 10.34022/2658-3712-2021-44-3-54-64
Subject(s) - pandemic , covid-19 , multiplier (economics) , population , mortality rate , excess mortality , health care , disease , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , environmental health , demography , economic growth , economics , sociology , pathology , macroeconomics
The article proposes a new methodology for analyzing excess mortality of the population during the COVID-19 pandemic, called by the author the "covid mortality multiplier (CMM)". The methodology is based on the scientifically-based hypothesis that the coronavirus not only directly kills people but also causes a chain reaction of premature deaths in society, caused by an overload of the healthcare infrastructure, limited financial, human, medical and technological resources for the provision of routine medical care, medical examination and early diagnosis of diseases not related to coronavirus. The aim of the article is to review the available publications on the problem of excess mortality due to the pandemic and to justify the possibilities of using the CMM multiplier index in the area of research. The practical significance lies in the verification of previously made expert conclusions about the reasons for the discrepancy between the indicators of total mortality and mortality due to the coronavirus disease, the development of a methodology for comparing factor indicators (determinants) and statistical results of negative processes occurring in the field of population reproduction.