Open AccessTHE ESTIMATION OF INFLUENCE OF THE SHARP OIL PRICES REDUCTION AND SANCTIONS ON THE DYNAMICS OF RUSSIAN CRUCIAL MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Author(s) -
Yuriy A. Dzyuba,
Dmitri Kolyuzhnov
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
interèkspo geo-sibirʹ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2618-981X
DOI - 10.33764/2618-981x-2021-2-4-228-236
Subject(s) - economics , dynamic stochastic general equilibrium , inflation (cosmology) , shock (circulatory) , oil price , monetary economics , sanctions , monetary policy , quarter (canadian coin) , macroeconomics , econometrics , medicine , physics , archaeology , theoretical physics , political science , law , history
This article provides a brief analysis of the impact of various macroeconomic shocks caused by the sanctions regime and the sharp drop in oil prices from 2014 to 2018. The authors identified shocks that greater extent provoked a GDP decline and inflation increase using the constructed DSGE-model of the Russian economy and the obtained historical decomposition for the quarterly growth rates of the investigated macro-indicators. According to calculations, the inflation growth from 2014 to 2015 can be interpreted as the sum of the adverse effects from the change in household preferences, the shock in oil prices, and the negative contribution of the stabilizing monetary policy. The observed GDP decline from the second quarter of 2014 to the third quarter of 2015 is explained by the synergistic effect of monetary policy shocks and a sharp drop in oil prices.