Open AccessREASONS FOR MODERN WARMING: HYPOTHESES AND FACTS
Author(s) -
Nikolai Nikolaevich Zavalishin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
interèkspo geo-sibirʹ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2618-981X
DOI - 10.33764/2618-981x-2020-4-1-42-48
Subject(s) - albedo (alchemy) , global warming , atmosphere (unit) , natural (archaeology) , environmental science , climatology , atmospheric sciences , climate change , greenhouse effect , geography , meteorology , geology , oceanography , art , archaeology , performance art , art history
Two hypotheses of modern warming are considered: natural and anthropogenic. The probabilities of each of them are compared. It is proved that the hypothesis of natural warming is much more likely than the hypothesis of anthropogenic warming. It is shown that the displacement of the Sun from the center of mass of the solar system directly affects the temperature of the surface atmosphere in the synoptic regions of Eurasia. This result corresponds to the model of E. P. Borysenkov with variations of the solar constant or, equivalently, with variations of the Bond albedo. We consider how natural causes of warming affect the temperature of the surface atmosphere on the example of the South of Western Siberia.