Open AccessNew Mathematical Model for the Russian Population Projections
Author(s) -
M. G. Nosova
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
bûlletenʹ nauki i praktiki
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2414-2948
DOI - 10.33619/2414-2948/66/01
Subject(s) - population , computer science , queueing theory , markov chain , markov process , markovian arrival process , population model , server , distribution (mathematics) , stochastic modelling , statistics , mathematics , demography , machine learning , computer network , mathematical analysis , sociology
In this article, a new original mathematical model for the Russian population projections as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of customers is built. The research of this system was carried out a virtual phase method and a modified method of asymptotic analysis and was proofed that the asymptotic distribution of applications served in the system at time t is Gaussian. Such a queuing system sufficiently and adequately simulates the process of changing the age structure of the population and can be used to analyze demographic situations in a single country and around the world. The mathematical model has been applied to the analysis of the population growth in Russia. We have built optimistic scenario for population projections to answer the question of how the Russian population will grow without immigration.