Open AccessClimatic factors influencing New Zealand pasture resilience under scenarios of future climate change
Author(s) -
Elizabeth D. Keller,
Mark Lieffering,
Jing Guo,
W. Troy Baisden,
AnneGaelle Ausseil
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
grassland research and practice series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2463-4751
pISSN - 0110-8581
DOI - 10.33584/rps.17.2021.3458
Subject(s) - pasture , climate change , environmental science , psychological resilience , grazing , climate resilience , livestock , agriculture , resilience (materials science) , agroforestry , geography , environmental resource management , natural resource economics , agronomy , ecology , economics , biology , psychology , physics , archaeology , forestry , psychotherapist , thermodynamics
New Zealand’s intensively managed pastoral agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on grazing livestock and pasture as the primary feed supply. Drawing from recent modelling results, annual pasture yields in New Zealand are projected to be robust to a changing climate due to more favourable growing conditions in winter and early spring and increased plant efficiencies from the CO2 fertilization effect. However, growth is also expected to become more variable and unpredictable, particularly in water-limited regions. A combination of short-term, incremental changes (already part of current practice) and longer-term strategic interventions will be necessary to maintain consistent feed supply under future climate change.