Open AccessIMPACTS OF SNOWMELT AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON HIMALAYAN RIVERS: THE CASE OF DATA-SCARCE DUDHKOSHI RIVER IN EASTERN NEPAL
Author(s) -
Sudeep Pokhrel,
Saraswati Thapa
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international journal of engineering applied science and technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2455-2143
DOI - 10.33564/ijeast.2021.v05i12.002
Subject(s) - downscaling , snowmelt , environmental science , precipitation , climate change , snow , surface runoff , climatology , drainage basin , climate model , hydrology (agriculture) , representative concentration pathways , meteorology , geography , geology , ecology , oceanography , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology
Water from snow-melt is crucial to provideecosystem services in downstream of the Himalayas. Tostudy the fate of snow hydrology, an integrated modelingsystem has been developed coupling StatisticalDownscaling Model (SDSM) outputs with SnowmeltRunoff Model (SRM) in the Dudhkoshi Basin, Nepal. TheSRM model is well-calibrated in 2011 and validated in2012 and 2014 using MODIS satellite data. The annualaverage observed and simulated discharges for thecalibration year are 177.89 m3/s and 181.47 m3/srespectively. To assess future climate projections for theperiods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, the SDSM model is usedfor downscaling precipitation, maximum temperature, andminimum temperature from the Canadian GCM model(CanESM2) under three different scenarios RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. All considered scenarios aresignificant in predicting increasing trends of maximumminimum temperature and precipitation and thestorehouse of freshwater in the mountains is expected todeplete rapidly if global warming continues.