Open AccessDynamic Incremental Model (MDI) to forecast the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic stabilization period
Author(s) -
Marcus Vinícius Dantas de Assunção,
Carla Simone de Lima Teixeira Assuncao,
Rute Anadila Amorim de Oliveira,
Maria Margarete Fernandes de Sousa
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
research, society and development
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2525-3409
DOI - 10.33448/rsd-v9i8.6201
Subject(s) - context (archaeology) , covid-19 , pandemic , range (aeronautics) , econometrics , work (physics) , operations research , computer science , economics , mathematics , engineering , geography , medicine , virology , mechanical engineering , disease , archaeology , pathology , aerospace engineering , outbreak , infectious disease (medical specialty)
Since the beginning of the year 2020, the world has been experiencing a COVID-19 pandemic, which challenges the public sector to make quick and efficient decisions, as the result is counted in lives. Thus, it is necessary to search for predictive models that support the decision and assist in the understanding of the behavior of the transmissions. In this context, the work aims to present a dynamic model for the daily increase in the number of deaths in order to determine a safety range capable of predicting a stabilization period for these deaths. For this, the model uses exponential and potential curves as limits for analyzing the behavior of the increment curve. The model proved to be efficient when compared to the actual data obtained so far.