Open AccessForecasting A Weekly Red Chilli Price in Bengkulu City Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) Methods
Author(s) -
Novi Putriasari,
Nugroho Sigit,
Ramya Rachmawati,
Winalia Agwil,
Yosep Oktavianus Sitohang
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of statistics and data science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2828-9986
DOI - 10.33369/jsds.v1i1.21007
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , indonesian , position (finance) , value (mathematics) , autoregressive model , statistics , econometrics , singular spectrum analysis , moving average , mathematics , time series , economics , finance , algorithm , singular value decomposition , linguistics , philosophy
Red chili occupies a strategic position in the Indonesian economic structure because its use applies to almost all Indonesian dishes. Therefore, controlling the price of red chili is anecessity to maintain national economic stability. The purpose of this research is to forecast a red chili weekly price using ARIMA and SSA based on the weekly data of chili prices from January 2016 - December 2019 sourced from Statistics Indonseia (BPS) Branch Office of Bengkulu Province. The data have been analyzed using software R. Based on MAPE, ARIMA (2,1,2) provides the best forecasting with value 0.49% while SSA 10.64%.