Open AccessDetermination of Optimal Smoothing Constants for Holt - Winter’s Multiplicative Method
Author(s) -
Md. Nayan Dhali,
Nandita Barman,
M Babul Hasan
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
the dhaka university journal of science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2408-8528
pISSN - 1022-2502
DOI - 10.3329/dujs.v67i2.54580
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , smoothing , multiplicative function , series (stratigraphy) , constant (computer programming) , exponential function , mathematics , econometrics , computer science , mathematical optimization , statistics , mathematical analysis , geology , paleontology , programming language
There are many trade time series parade having seasonality. This paper ponders on taking the appropriate smoothing constants of seasonal time series data using Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing method in demand forecasting of toy production in a company. It is a quantitative technique in forecasting. This forecasting method is used three constants that assign weights to current demands and previous forecasts to decide on a new forecast. We have demonstrated the techniques how to choose these constants by presenting a real life example and calculated corresponding forecast value of this technique for the optimal smoothing constants.
Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 99-104, 2019 (July)