Zmiana liczby zgonów i trwania życia w latach 2016–2018. Przyczynek do analizy zgonów w Polsce

Since the 1990s, life expectancy at birth in Poland has increased by over three months on average each year for both sexes. However, in recent years there has been a decrease in life expectancy, and the number of deaths increased by 6% for men and 8% for women between 2016 and 2018. The aim of this study is to identify the subpopulations most sensitive to the recent changes in mortality in Poland. The increase in deaths is described with regard to changes in age distribution of the population and age at death contributing to life expectancy changes in recent years is analysed. The findings serve as a basis for making references to theoretical knowledge and proposals for future research directions as well as recommendations for public statistics and social policy. The increase in the number of deaths is a new phenomenon that cannot be accounted for by the size differences between the cohorts born between the two world wars and during the Second World War or the ageing of the baby-boom generations. The greatest contributors to the decreasing life expectancy are deaths at older age. This and the fast growing population aged 85 years and more indicate a need to devote more research attention to analysing mortality in the oldest age groups. It is also emphasised that the elderly are potentially the most prone to various threats associated with an excessive number of deaths, including inadequate health care funding.