Open AccessInference on Reported Vehicular Fatal Accidents in Nigeria Using a Bayesian Model
Author(s) -
Olalude Gbenga Adelekan,
Mbata Ahamefula Ugochukwu,
Amusan Ajitoni Simeon
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of mathematics and statistics studies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2709-4200
DOI - 10.32996/jmss.2021.2.1.6
Subject(s) - relative risk , bayes' theorem , statistics , geography , bayesian inference , poisson regression , bayesian probability , econometrics , mathematics , environmental health , medicine , confidence interval , population
The study introduced a special case of the Poisson-Generalized Gamma empirical Bayes model to survey states in Nigeria with a higher risk of fatal accidents. Monte Carlo error and stationary dynamic trace plots were used to validate model convergence and accuracy of the posterior estimates. The main results included the disease mappings that revealed Ebonyi had the highest risk of road vehicular fatal accidents in Nigeria with a relative risk estimate of 1.4120 while Abuja had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate 0.5711. In terms of geopolitical region, the risk of road vehicular fatal accident is highest in South-South region with a relative risk estimate of 1.1850 while North-Central had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate of 0.7846. The study is to aid planned government programs to ameliorate vehicular road carnage in Nigeria.