Open AccessTime Series Long-Term Forecasting of per Capita Electricity Consumption for Bangladesh
Author(s) -
Robiul Islam Rubel,
Md. Hasan Ali,
Md. Ariful Alam
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
asm science journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.12
H-Index - 6
eISSN - 2682-8901
pISSN - 1823-6782
DOI - 10.32802/asmscj.2021.609
Subject(s) - per capita , autoregressive integrated moving average , electricity , consumption (sociology) , economics , time series , estimation , work (physics) , sustainable development , agricultural economics , business , statistics , population , engineering , mathematics , demography , mechanical engineering , social science , management , sociology , political science , law , electrical engineering
Bangladesh government has announced Vision-2041 of electricity generation and distribution to uplift the socio-economic conditions of Bangladesh. It is now entering into the list of middle-income countries and now planning for energy as one key measure to sustainable development. Policymakers are trying to forecast the future per capita electricity consumption and set up a feasible way of electricity generation over longer periods for sustainable development of Bangladesh through preventing underestimation or overestimation that could cause a huge loss in the financial sector of Bangladesh. This work focuses on long-term estimation of electricity consumption for Bangladesh, time series models have been used to forecast per capita electricity consumption from fiscal year (FY) 2019/20-2040/41 (next 22 years). An actual past historical data of FY 1976/77-2018/19 (43 years) has been analysed on Minitab 17 to get the most favourable time series model for forecasting per capita electricity consumption of Bangladesh. ARIMA has appeared as the most accurate time series model over the actual historical data of 43 years with the lowest MAPE, MAD, and MSD as 4.50, 3.23, and 15.40, respectively.