Development of Predictive Tools for Contaminant Transport through Variably-Saturated Heterogeneous Composite Porous Formations

The vadose (unsaturated) zone forms a major hydrologic link between the ground surface and underlying aquifers. To understand properly its role in protecting groundwater from near surface sources of contamination, one must be able to analyze quantitatively water flow and contaminant transport in variably saturated subsurface environments that are highly heterogeneous, often consisting of multiple geologic units and/or high and/or low permeability inclusions. The specific objectives of this research were: (i) to develop efficient and accurate tools for probabilistic delineation of dominant geologic features comprising the vadose zone; (ii) to develop a complementary set of data analysis tools for discerning the fractal properties of hydraulic and transport parameters of highly heterogeneous vadose zone; (iii) to develop and test the associated computational methods for probabilistic analysis of flow and transport in highly heterogeneous subsurface environments; and (iv) to apply the computational framework to design an “optimal” observation network for monitoring and forecasting the fate and migration of contaminant plumes originating from agricultural activities. During the course of the project, we modified the third objective to include additional computational method, based on the notion that the heterogeneous formation can be considered as a mixture of populations of differing spatial structures. Regarding uncertainly analysis, going beyond approaches based on mean and variance of system states, we succeeded to develop probability density function (PDF) solutions enabling one to evaluate probabilities of rare events, required for probabilistic risk assessment. In addition, we developed reduced complexity models for the probabilistic forecasting of infiltration rates in heterogeneous soils during surface runoff and/or flooding events Regarding flow and transport in variably saturated, spatially heterogeneous formations associated with fine- and coarse-textured embedded soils (FTES- and CTES-formations, respectively).We succeeded to develop first-order and numerical frameworks for flow and transport in three-dimensional (3-D), variably saturated, bimodal, heterogeneous formations, with single and dual porosity, respectively. Regarding the sampling problem defined as, how many sampling points are needed, and where to locate them spatially in the horizontal x₂x₃ plane of the field. Based on our computational framework, we succeeded to develop and demonstrate a methdology that might improve considerably our ability to describe quntitaively the response of complicated 3-D flow systems. The results of the project are of theoretical and practical importance; they provided a rigorous framework to modeling water flow and solute transport in a realistic, highly heterogeneous, composite flow system with uncertain properties under-specified by data. Specifically, they: (i) enhanced fundamental understanding of the basic mechanisms of field-scale flow and transport in near-surface geological formations under realistic flow scenarios, (ii) provided a means to assess the ability of existing flow and transport models to handle realistic flow conditions, and (iii) provided a means to assess quantitatively the threats posed to groundwater by contamination from agricultural sources.