Open AccessProblem of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making in Business
Author(s) -
E. L. Vitchak,
А.С. Грушицын,
Marina Danilina,
В.Б. Терновсков
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
problemy analiza riska
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2658-7882
pISSN - 1812-5220
DOI - 10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-3-74-81
Subject(s) - intuition , logical analysis , competition (biology) , computer science , field (mathematics) , management science , economics , operations research , psychology , engineering , mathematics , ecology , mathematical statistics , statistics , biology , cognitive science , pure mathematics
When making decisions in the field of medium and large business, top management of companies are guided, as a rule, by intuitive considerations. This method is based both on personal experience and the experience of industry colleagues. Intuition can work on non-complex logical tasks, but in the case of complex logistics, the leader is forced to act at his own risk and there is a big chance of an unsuccessful result. Losing is always expensive, given the great competition in the market in almost all areas. In a difficult situation, as a rule, you need a good adviser, a specialist with high professional skills. The proposed method is based on the application of probability theory, a science that studies random events and quantities. This article discusses several practical aspects of the economy and proposes a solution in terms of probability theory.