Open AccessClassifying of Krasnoyarsk territory using a risk-based approach
Author(s) -
Ulyana Ivanova,
В. В. Москвичев,
О. В. Тасейко
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
problemy analiza riska
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2658-7882
pISSN - 1812-5220
DOI - 10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-48-63
Subject(s) - work (physics) , risk analysis (engineering) , hazard , risk management , risk assessment , sustainable development , relevance (law) , probabilistic logic , environmental resource management , computer science , business , operations research , engineering , environmental science , computer security , mechanical engineering , chemistry , organic chemistry , finance , artificial intelligence , law , political science
The problem of sustainable development of industrial territories is considered with using a nonzero risk concept of accidents and catastrophes. Th e mathematical models for risk assessment were chosen for the information system of territorial risk management and safety. The purpose of the work is to identify and analyze basic technological risks for the information system of territorial risk management and safety (IST RMS) of the Krasnoyarsk territory. This information system provides making decision on the implementation of measures aimed at reducing the risks of sustainable development. The following tasks are set in the work: determination of the basic technospheric risks; calculation and analyzing risk of anthropogenic emergencies on the example of the Krasnoyarsk territory; safety analysis of the region. To achieve the purpose of this work were used probabilistic-statistical research methods. The relevance of the work is determined by the need to implement a national safety strategy at the regional level through risk assessment and analysis. The result of the work is an assessment of technological risks and a generalized security analysis of the municipalities and regions in the Krasnoyarsk territory. We obtained the basic development risks and algorithms for assessing territorial safety are determined using statistical analysis, ranges of individual, collective, material and social risks in an anthropogenic emergency. The classifying of territories according to the degree of anthropogenic hazard was carried out. Based on the obtained results, we conclude that in order to achieve acceptable risk values, it is necessary to use an integrated system approach to multifunctional monitoring of territories.