Open AccessRisk-oriented simulation of the long logistics supply chains in developing enterprises
Author(s) -
Oleg Fedorovich,
Yurii Pronchakov
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
avacìjno-kosmìčna tehnìka ì tehnologìâ/avìacìjno-kosmìčna tehnìka ta tehnologìâ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2663-2217
pISSN - 1727-7337
DOI - 10.32620/aktt.2021.3.10
Subject(s) - supply chain , vulnerability (computing) , risk analysis (engineering) , production (economics) , task (project management) , supply chain risk management , business , computer science , industrial organization , operations research , supply chain management , computer security , service management , systems engineering , marketing , economics , engineering , microeconomics
The paper defines and solves the urgent problem of research of long logistics supply chains in developing enterprises. Due to the distribution of the production system as well as to the presence of a large number of remote suppliers of materials, raw materials and components supply plans are threatened. Supply disruptions in their turn may affect the plans of the main production resulting in possible fines, economic losses, and disruptions in supply of manufactured articles to the markets of high-tech and science-intensive products. To study threats and vulnerabilities in supply logistics the risk-oriented approach that considers potential threats using past statistics and expert assessments has been proposed. The objective of the paper is to develop a risk-oriented method to study the existing threats and assess their impact on the vulnerabilities of the logistics chains of the distributed production system. Due to the complexity of the problematic logistics task, the study is conducted in three different stages: development of the method to simulate the risks in long supply chains; identification of possible bottlenecks in the transport system of supply logistics; threat simulation and vulnerability analysis in supply logistics. To model the risks, an agent model is used, in which the accumulation of risks is carried out by passing orders in the transport system. To simulate bottlenecks, a simulation event model is used, in which large queues that occur in the transport system are analyzed. A stochastic simulation model is used to model threats and vulnerabilities. The new scientific results are risk-oriented method of long logistics supply chains simulation; simulation of supply logistics threats and vulnerabilities. Mathematical methods used: risk theory; simulation event modeling; agent modeling; queuing theory. The proposed approach as a set of developed simulation models should be used to plan the supply of developing production.