Assessing the Factors Affecting the Demand for Consumer Goods in Afghanistan (1377-1389)

Most of the counties of world’s experiences show that existence in universal markets and taking other benefits of foreign trade, in few recent decades, opening of economical developmental way for many countries are in growth. In this reason of affiliation of country to the extreme import in past few decades and also having no fair strategy for realizing the effective factors of import, properly these days, on importing of consumed clothes of the country, the country is changed to a consumed. Therefore, realizing and analyzing of the effective factors on the import of Afghanistan’s consumed clothes is paid in this research that with the attention of the Cointegration, from the econometric analysis self-method Auto- regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), is used. In this research, so from complete study related to consumed clothes import basic theory and review the studies of Afghanistan and universe. Afghanistan’s foreign trade structure (from 2008-2016) was analyzed and according to these studies, kind and measurement of the effect of the factor such as consumer price index, Gross domestic products, currency reserves and export earnings from this section from function of import is studied. The results of this research have that variable with lag (previous import period) and earnings of export for related view was not meaningful and had no considerable effect on import of consumed clothes. Importing elasticity of demand for this kind of clothes have less quantity. Foreign variable currency reserves also have meaningful grade and make considerable effects to this function. Finally, gross domestic products also was as a subject of the effective factor to this function. Similarly, the fairer replace for the import consumed clothes is realized. Also, existence of the co-integration of variations is confirmed, long relations and error correction model (ECM) for mentioned function is summed. .