Open AccessVietnam’s future public debt: Prospects and implicantions
Author(s) -
Vi Hoang Tuong Dinh
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
khoa học và công nghệ: kinh tế - luật - quản lý
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2588-1051
DOI - 10.32508/stdjelm.v4i3.668
Subject(s) - debt , deficit spending , debt to gdp ratio , internal debt , debt ratio , economics , external debt , debt levels and flows , business , finance
By the end of 2017, VietNam's public debt had reached 3.1 million billion VND; 2.2 times higher than the end of 2011 (1,393 million VND). The ratio of public debt/GDP of Vietnam has increased rapidly in recent year, since 2011. Specifically, within only 5 years from 2011 to 2015, the ratio of public debt / GDP of Vietnam increased by 12.2 percentage points, from 50% to 62.2%. Although, the Government of Vietnam has made strong commitments to control public debt. But the actual results are not as expected and tend to get worse. With the current trend of increasing the size and risk of public debt, it is necessary to forecast the public debt and make policy implications on public debt management. Therefore, the author analyzed the state of Vietnam's budget deficit and public debt. Since the author used dynamic models Cechetti, Mohanty and Zampolli (2010) to forecast Vietnam's public debt trends to 2030, with three scenarios: The basic scenario is that there is no improvement in the balance of budget the Basic scenario is no improvement in the basic budget balance, the Bad scenario is the high budget deficit. From there, implications on public debt management that aim to increase the sustainability of public debt in VietNam.