Open AccessREGARDING SCENARIO APPROACH AND ITS PROBLEMS IN THE FIELD OF CRIMINOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
Author(s) -
O. Lytvynov,
Y. Hladkova
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
arhìv krimìnologìï ta sudovih nauk
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2709-1007
pISSN - 2709-099X
DOI - 10.32353/acfs.1.2020.06
Subject(s) - risk analysis (engineering) , action (physics) , computer science , enforcement , field (mathematics) , management science , resource (disambiguation) , quality (philosophy) , component (thermodynamics) , operations research , business , economics , engineering , political science , computer network , philosophy , physics , mathematics , epistemology , quantum mechanics , pure mathematics , law , thermodynamics
The current stage of criminological science development is characterized by increased attention of scholars and practitioners to the possibilities of scenario thinking. The main reason for applying scenario approach is the need to choose the method of action in a specific problem situation, to rationalize decisions while minimizing the risks. The conditions for the application of this method, including the field of combating crime, are its temporary and resource-based economy, simplicity of perception of scenario information, which does not require quantitative assessment of future events, the construction of mathematical models, etc. The specificity of the indicated approach consists in the simultaneous consideration of several development options with the opportunities and risks characteristic for each of them, with subjective and objective, internal and external factors, criteria and indicators. The analysis of the risk component plays the key role: most risks with timely and adequate attention lose their fatal nature and can serve to reveal new opportunities. The development of alternative future situations is an important stage of work, the content and quality of the scenarios depend on this. Based on several scenarios, one can develop an integrated strategy that works in all scenarios and ensures minimization of the risk regardless of the realization of future events.
The main barriers to the widespread adoption of the scenario approach in the practice of combating crime are the following factors: 1) the objectively existing predominance of pessimistic scenarios in their total mass; 2) the lag of science from the needs of law enforcement practice, which, in turn, is late in responding to crime transformations; 3) subjective rejection of individual scientific and methodological innovations by managers and law enforcement officials; 4) the complicacy of conducting complex interdisciplinary research; 5) outermost subjection to impacts caused by public authorities actions; 6) the presence of an irrational component in the crime system.