Components of Kenya's future population growth and population policy implications

The world’s population has grown rapidly from about 2.5 billion in 1950 to a current size of 5.8 billion. As noted in this report, most of the increase has been recorded in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America due to continued high fertility in the face of reductions in levels of mortality. Kenya provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of various policy options on future population growth. The primary objective of this study is to measure the impact of different causes of continued population growth on Kenya’s future size and to formulate appropriate policy measures to minimize the adverse socioeconomic consequences of population growth. This study briefly reviews population policies pursued by the Kenyan government since the formulation of the first such policy in 1967. Projections made by the World Bank and the United Nations are summarized, and a new set of projections is presented to highlight the contributions of the different causes of future growth. The study concludes with policy implications emanating from this analysis.