Open AccessThe Effects of Human Mobility Restriction During Covid-19 Pandemic to Indonesia's Economy
Author(s) -
Ferdian Fadly
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
kajian ilmiah ekonomi dan keuangan/kek (kajian ekonomi dan keuangan)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2540-9999
pISSN - 1410-3249
DOI - 10.31685/kek.v4i3.678
Subject(s) - recession , pandemic , quarter (canadian coin) , covid-19 , economics , development economics , regression analysis , economic indicator , demographic economics , geography , economic geography , economy , economic growth , macroeconomics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , medicine , archaeology , pathology , machine learning , computer science
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several national governments have implemented lockdown restrictions to reduce the risk of infection. However, this will have an impact on the economy of a country, including Indonesia. This study will analyze the effect of mobility restrictions on the economic growth in Indonesia during the pandemic in 2020. The data used are real-time data on community mobility report provided by Google. Data processing begins with factor analysis, followed by multiple linear regression. This study aims to model the changes in community mobility as exogenous factors affecting economic growth. As a result, restrictions on community mobility, particularly related to job factors, significantly affect the economic development of an area, particularly in the provinces of Java Island. The resulting model would explain 96.97 per cent of the variations in regional economic growth in Indonesia in 2020. Besides, this study predicts that 25 provinces will experience a recession in the third quarter of 2020. This forecast is the result of economic growth estimated using the current condition. Learning the association between mobility and economy is essential to understand how much restrictions or relaxations needed that can be appropriate to our economy during the pandemic.