Open AccessMonte Carlo simulation of climate-weather change process at maritime ferry operating area
Author(s) -
E. Kuligowska
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
technical sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2083-4527
pISSN - 1505-4675
DOI - 10.31648/ts.2563
Subject(s) - environmental science , climate change , monte carlo method , meteorology , process (computing) , climatology , markov process , markov chain , computer science , statistics , mathematics , geography , oceanography , geology , operating system
The paper presents a computer simulation technique applied to generating the climate-weather change process at Baltic Sea restricted waters and its characteristics evaluation. The Monte Carlo method is used under the assumption of semi-Markov model of this process. A procedure and an algorithm of climate-weather change process’ realizations generating and its characteristics evaluation are proposed to be applied in C# program preparation. Using this program, the climate-weather change process’ characteristics are predicted for the maritime ferry operating area. Namely, the mean values and standard deviations of the unconditional sojourn times, the limit values of transient probabilities and the mean values of total sojourn times for the fixed time at the climate-weather states are determined.