Open AccessStatistical Analysis of the Model Parameters of the Epidemic Situation
Author(s) -
Ю Б Гришунина,
Н. А. Контаров,
Г В Архарова,
Н. В. Юминова
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
èpidemiologiâ i vakcinoprofilaktika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2619-0494
pISSN - 2073-3046
DOI - 10.31631/2073-3046-2015-14-5-13-20
Subject(s) - outbreak , epidemic model , estimation , covid-19 , population , statistics , demography , duration (music) , epidemic disease , econometrics , geography , virology , disease , computer science , operations research , medicine , environmental health , mathematics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , engineering , sociology , art , systems engineering , literature , pathology
A calculation method and a variation method of parameters of the epidemic situation model taking into account external risks is proposed. The detailed step-by-step algorithm available in the application Exel for the calculation and analysis of the model parameters based on the results of observations is given. The prognosis of the epidemic situation with the estimation of the disease outbreak duration and the total number of population members involved in the outbreak is constructed. We investigated the epidemic situation by an example of reports of a diseases group acute viral respiratory infections-flu in one of the districts of the Moscow region.