Open AccessAplikasi Peramalan Jumlah Siswa Sekolah Dasar di Kabupaten Tanah Laut Menggunakan Metode Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing
Author(s) -
Nora Apriliyani,
Herfia Rhomadhona,
Jaka Permadi
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
jurnal sustainable
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2615-6334
pISSN - 2087-5347
DOI - 10.31629/sustainable.v7i2.623
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , statistics , mathematics education , mathematics , diagram , mean absolute percentage error , mean squared error
Learning processes in the elementary schools at Tanah Laut District is affected by the number of students. Through the number of students can be predicted how much the need of additional teachers, rooms, textbooks and learning medias that support learning processes in the schools. In other words, the infrastructure of the schools can be predicted by the number of students that is registered in Tanah Laut District. The research use Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing method to predicting the number of the prospective students in Tanah Laut District. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) technique is used to calculate the percentage of error from the forecasting’s result. The system is designed by Entity Relationship Diagram (ERD) and Data Flow Diagram (DFD). The forecasting that have been done said that the number of Tanah Laut’s elementary school students at 2018 is 35655 students, with the value of MAPE is about 0.77%, a = 0.77 and ß = 0.8.