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Modeling Supreme Court Strategic Decision Making: The Congressional Constraint
Author(s) -
BERGARA MARIO,
RICHMAN BARAK,
SPILLER PABLO T.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
legislative studies quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.728
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1939-9162
pISSN - 0362-9805
DOI - 10.3162/036298003x200881
Subject(s) - supreme court , legislature , presidential system , constraint (computer aided design) , political science , product (mathematics) , law , supreme court decisions , law and economics , economics , econometrics , politics , mathematics , geometry
This paper addresses the contradictory results obtained by Segal (1997) and Spiller and Gely (1992) concerning the impact of institutional constraints on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision making. By adapting the Spiller and Gely maximum likelihood model to the Segal dataset, we find support for the hypothesis that the Court adjusts its decisions to presidential and congressional preferences. Data from 1947 to 1992 indicate that the average probability of the Court being constrained has been approximately one‐third. Further, we show that the results obtained by Segal are the product of biases introduced by a misspecified econometric model. We also discuss how our estimation highlights the usefulness of Krehbiel's model of legislative decision making.