Open AccessTO THE QUESTION OF IMPROVING THE METHODOLOGY OF FORECASTING BANKRUPTCY SMALL BUSINESS
Author(s) -
Ekaterina V. Ivanova
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
evrazijskij soûz učenyh/evrazijskij soûz učënyh
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2413-9335
pISSN - 2411-6467
DOI - 10.31618/esu.2413-9335.2020.7.78.1028
Subject(s) - bankruptcy , relevance (law) , dialectic , business , abstraction , logistic regression , estimation , actuarial science , economics , finance , computer science , political science , management , philosophy , epistemology , machine learning , law
The aim of this paper is to identify the possibilities of applying of existing models for estimation of the probability of bankruptcy in domestic and foreign practice to predict the risk of default of small enterprises. The relevance of this research is due to the role the small businesses play in the social-economic development of regions and the country as a whole. The relationship between individual indicators of the region’s social-economic situation and the level of bankrupt enterprises in the total number of enterprises is shown. The differentiation of Russian regions in terms of social-economic development (in Siberian Federal district as an example) are demonstrated, the desirability of including of regional factor in model of bankruptcy forecasting is highlighted. Based on the dialectical approach, comparison, abstraction, analysis and synthesis, a conceptual approach to creation of logistic regression model for predicting the bankruptcy of small enterprises is described.