Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study | Zendy

Umar Tasiu Mustapha | Zendy; Evren Hınçal | Zendy; Abdullahi Yusuf | Zendy; Shaima Qureshi | Zendy; Tamer Şanlıdağ | Zendy; Sahid Muhammad | Zendy; Bilgen Kaymakamzade | Zendy; Nezihal Gökbulut | Zendy

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Transmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study

Author(s) -

Umar Tasiu Mustapha,

Evren Hınçal,

Abdullahi Yusuf,

Shaima Qureshi,

Tamer Şanlıdağ,

Sahid Muhammad,

Bilgen Kaymakamzade,

Nezihal Gökbulut

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

bulletin of the karaganda university-mathematics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

eISSN - 2663-5011

pISSN - 2518-7929

DOI - 10.31489/2021m2/92-105

Subject(s) - basic reproduction number , quarantine , social distance , transmission (telecommunications) , covid-19 , sensitivity (control systems) , population , statistics , epidemic model , infection rate , computer science , demography , mathematics , econometrics , biology , medicine , ecology , engineering , telecommunications , disease , pathology , electronic engineering , sociology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , surgery

In this paper a mathematical model is proposed, which incorporates quarantine and hospitalization to assess the community impact of social distancing and face mask among the susceptible population. The model parameters are estimated and fitted to the model with the use of laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases in Turkey from March 11 to October 10, 2020. The partial rank correlation coefficient is employed to perform sensitivity analysis of the model, with basic reproduction number and infection attack rate as response functions. Results from the sensitivity analysis reveal that the most essential parameters for effective control of COVID-19 infection are recovery rate from quarantine individuals (δ1), recovery rate from hospitalized individuals (δ4), and transmission rate (β). Some simulation results are obtained with the aid of mesh plots with respect to the basic reproductive number as a function of two different biological parameters randomly chosen from the model. Finally, numerical simulations on the dynamics of the model highlighted that infections from the compartments of each state variables decreases with time which causes an increase in susceptible individuals. This implies that avoiding contact with infected individuals by means of adequate awareness of social distancing and wearing face mask are vital to prevent or reduce the spread of COVID-19 infection.

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