Open AccessTransmission dynamics and control strategies of COVID-19: a modelling study
Author(s) -
Umar Tasiu Mustapha,
Evren Hınçal,
Abdullah Yusuf,
Shaima Qureshi,
Tamer Şanlıdağ,
Sule Muhammad,
Bilgen Kaymakamzade,
Nezihal Gökbulut
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
ķaraġandy universitetìnìn̦ habaršysy. matematika seriâsy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2663-5011
pISSN - 2518-7929
DOI - 10.31489/2021m2/92-105
Subject(s) - basic reproduction number , transmission (telecommunications) , quarantine , social distance , covid-19 , sensitivity (control systems) , population , statistics , epidemic model , computer science , demography , simulation , mathematics , biology , medicine , environmental health , ecology , engineering , telecommunications , disease , pathology , electronic engineering , sociology , infectious disease (medical specialty)
In this paper a mathematical model is proposed, which incorporates quarantine and hospitalization to assess the community impact of social distancing and face mask among the susceptible population. The model parameters are estimated and fitted to the model with the use of laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases in Turkey from March 11 to October 10, 2020. The partial rank correlation coefficient is employed to perform sensitivity analysis of the model, with basic reproduction number and infection attack rate as response functions. Results from the sensitivity analysis reveal that the most essential parameters for effective control of COVID-19 infection are recovery rate from quarantine individuals (δ1), recovery rate from hospitalized individuals (δ4), and transmission rate (β). Some simulation results are obtained with the aid of mesh plots with respect to the basic reproductive number as a function of two different biological parameters randomly chosen from the model. Finally, numerical simulations on the dynamics of the model highlighted that infections from the compartments of each state variables decreases with time which causes an increase in susceptible individuals. This implies that avoiding contact with infected individuals by means of adequate awareness of social distancing and wearing face mask are vital to prevent or reduce the spread of COVID-19 infection.