Statistical analysis of maximum runoff of the Southern Buh River using the method of ‘Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration’

Knowledge of maximum river runoff trends is of great practical importance, especially for design and operation of hydraulic structures. This article presents the results of the research of the Southern Buh River's maximum runoff. The water of the river is widely used for hydropower engineering, industrial and municipal water supply, agriculture, irrigation, shipping, tourism etc. The research of the maximum runoff was based on the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method which is widely used in the whole world. This method enables calculation of quantitative statistical characteristics of rivers', lakes', reservoirs' runoff and determination of the degree of their hydrological regime changes. The IHA is used for water bodies having natural or regulated runoff. However, the IHA method was not widely used in Ukraine before. The purpose of this publication is using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations method in order to study the characteristics of maximum runoff and their changes along the Southern Buh River. The research was carried out based on the data of observations at 5 gauge stations located along the Southern Buh River. The research uses the mean daily discharges that has been recorded since the beginning of observations up to 2018 and 2019 inclusive. The river's runoff at each of gauge stations was divided into five components: "Extremely low runoff", "Low runoff", "High runoff pulses", "Small floods", "Large floods". This made it possible to separate three classes of high (maximum) runoff, for which the IHA statistics were calculated, from the total runoff. It was discovered that the long-term high runoff changes differed in each of its three components, although they had general trends. The most significant changes were found for large floods, with no significant changes found for high runoff pulses. General trends of high runoff showed that over time the values of maximum discharges tend to decrease, with the increasing duration of high runoff periods. The values of the main statistical indicators of high runoff gradually increase from the river's source to its mouth, which fully corresponds to the physical and geographical conditions of its formation. Nevertheless, some features of high runoff were still found. Thus small floods and high runoff pulses have the largest duration in the upper reach of the river. On average, the Southern Buh River experiences large floods once in every 10 years, small floods - once in every 2 years, high runoff pulses - 4-8 times a year in its upper reach and 9-14 times a year in its middle reach.