Forecasting the use of non-restored energy consumers at heating power plant

Energy saving involves the development of systems for forecasting the use and accounting of energy costs. The analysis of the forecasting system for the use of natural energy in the conditions of total energy saving is carried out. The peculiarities of the use of energy in the thermal power plant during the year are identified and analyzed. The choice and forecasting of the forecasting function on which it is best to make a forecast of energy consumption for the coming year is proposed and substantiated. The structure and current costs of natural gas at TPPs for energy costs are described. As a result of the research, the substantiation of the concept of calculation of the forecasting function for the accounting of the costs of non-renewable energy resources at thermal power plants and enterprises using natural gas was proposed. This, in turn, provides for effective planning and enhancement of the economic efficiency of the enterprise. All this allows to regulate the modes and costs of fuel use during the operation of the power plant with limited volumes of natural gas. The frequency of consumption is due to seasonal heating costs, so the periodic forecasting function makes it possible to obtain a more accurate forecast than the linear prediction function. The scientific novelty of the research is to formulate the substantiation of the conceptual principles of building a mathematical model of energy use and accounting on the basis of the use of four forecasting functions and to provide recommendations on how to rationally use non-renewable natural resources. the resources available and the typical features of the automation facility. The practical significance of the work is to forecast and calculate the volume of natural gas consumption (thousand m3) by the enterprise for the next year, which in turn allows you to adjust gas costs for the future and make sound decisions as. it is possible to reduce fuel consumption or use it as efficiently as possible. The standard deviation that characterizes the forecast error is 11.55 thousand m3 . Within 95 months out of 100, the expected fluctuations of natural gas consumption relative to the values determined by the periodically predictive function are 524.4 thousand m3 . The estimated value of annual consumption of natural gas is 11868,58 thousand m3