Open AccessFORECASTING CURRENT HYDROCARBONS AND HYDROCARBONS CUMULATED BY THE PRODUCTION WITH THE USE OF THE PROBABILISTIC-STATISTICAL MODELS
Author(s) -
В. С. Бойко,
B. M. Mishchuk
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
rozvìdka ta rozrobka naftovih ì gazovih rodoviŝ
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2415-332X
pISSN - 1993-9973
DOI - 10.31471/1993-9973-2019-2(71)-55-70
Subject(s) - set (abstract data type) , lift (data mining) , petroleum engineering , probabilistic logic , computer science , fossil fuel , reservoir engineering , production (economics) , lead (geology) , logarithm , environmental science , operations research , process engineering , industrial engineering , geology , petroleum , engineering , data mining , mathematics , artificial intelligence , paleontology , mathematical analysis , macroeconomics , geomorphology , economics , programming language , waste management
In the course of time any well, no matter how efficiently it was exploited and how rationally formation energy was used, stops blowing-out (flowing). Consequently, there appears a need to switch to artificial lift well operation methods and in both cases there is a need to predict the change of the parameters of the well operation, namely the change of flow rate.
Nowadays, to predict the flowrate, the logarithmic dependence is mainly used, but it does not always describe accurately the nature of the change in the amount of produced oil. In the design of the development of “new” oil and gas fields the numerical methods based on computer geological and industrial models took a prominent place. These methods provide an acceptable (for now) and the most reliable technological parameters of the development of hydrocarbon accumulation but on condition of the availability of complete and satisfactory accurate information. This gives the opportunity to build a probable digitized geological model of the reservoir. Such a model should be gradually clarified for the time of drafting the next design document.
There wasn’t a lot of information with satisfactory accuracy about the “old” developed accumulations and it was not necessary to specify the set of parameters for analytical design. Therefore, it is almost impossible and economically unprofitable to build a modern geological model for them. It is only possible to get approximately the real overview of the depletion of oil reserves and to evaluate promising parameters of the development of deposits.
But, for both “new” and “old” fields there is a need to explore deposits additionally at the final stages of development and to evaluate the nature of their behavior in future.
It proves the importance of predicting the well flow rate and, overall, the fields development parameters at a mature production stage concerning both “new” and “old” fields according to the actual statistics of field development. Having studied the history (retrospective), it is possible to conclude about the further development of the basic production data (perspective) without great time and labour input. Automatically the characteristics of the system implemented in the prospect and development technologies are taken into account.