Open AccessTotal New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach
Author(s) -
Smartson. P. Nyoni,
Thabani Nyoni
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
international journal on integrated education
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2620-3502
pISSN - 2615-3785
DOI - 10.31149/ijie.v3i10.648
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , box–jenkins , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , statistics , series (stratigraphy) , time series , sample (material) , econometrics , mathematics , virology , medicine , biology , paleontology , chemistry , chromatography
Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, H, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon is likely to continue declining over the out-of-sample period.