Open AccessForecasting of Rice Production using the Meteorological Factor in Major States in India and its Role in Food Security
Author(s) -
Pradeep Mishra
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international journal of agriculture environment and biotechnology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2230-732X
pISSN - 0974-1712
DOI - 10.30954/0974-1712.01.2021.6
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , productivity , production (economics) , food security , agricultural economics , agricultural engineering , projection (relational algebra) , mathematics , environmental science , geography , economics , statistics , time series , engineering , economic growth , agriculture , archaeology , algorithm , macroeconomics
The world as well as in India, rice is playing a major role in food security. Production factors (like rainfall, minimum temperature, fertilizer consumption, an area under irrigation for a particular crop) are very crucial for crop productivity. Forecasting is always important for policy implication and planning purposes of the country. In the present investigation, the projection has been made using simple ARIMA and ARIMAX (with the inclusion of crop inputs in ARIMA models). In terms of less error in model and projection, wise ARIMAX model was found better compared to simple ARIMA. In this present study, forecasting has been attempted with the inclusion of meteorological factors using ARIMA modeling up to the year 2022. This study reveals the future trend of rice production as well as a factor affecting productivity. Among the major states, West Bengal would lead the state in India in rice production, with a productivity of 4758 kg/ha, while Punjab will be the leader in productivity in the year 2022. This prediction would be helpful for policy implication and food security of the country.