Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Intercity Passenger Flows for Various Modes of Transport

The article is devoted to methodological features of forecasting intercity passenger flows under the conditions of transformation of the transport system of Russia, namely, the emergence of a new type of rail transport which is high-speed rail. The objective of the article is to present the authors’ methodology for forecasting passenger flows and to prove its higher efficiency relative to the methods used in Russia today. The article considers the historical aspect of forecasting passenger flows, analyzes strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches to forecasting and modelling passenger flows. The authors argue that it is impossible to simulate the number of trips with changes in transportation parameters only on the basis of patterns identified by retrospective data series (the most common approach to forecasting passenger flows in Russia). The article proposes an alternative methodology based on the calculation of passenger’s total costs of a trip, which depend on cost of travel, loss of time, frequency of departure of vehicles and their comfort, as well as considering the dynamics of key social-economic indicators. The technique allows minimizing measurement errors arising from the lack of primary information about some types of passenger transport, as well as calculating the induced demand for trips arising as a result of improved transportation characteristics. The authors identified and expressed in quantitative terms the main factors of redistribution of passenger flows to newly introduced types of transport. The article discusses the experience of forecasting passenger flow according to the proposed method at the example of four itineraries where movement of high-speed trains of Lastochka type started. The forecasted results are compared with the actual volumes of transportation, on the basis of which conclusions are drawn about the effectiveness of the forecasting method and its applicability in modern realities of the Russian transport system. The advantages and disadvantages of the proposed approach to forecasting passenger traffic, as well as the possibilities of its implementation and further development in Russia are identified.