Open AccessSpatial analysis of risk of morbidity and mortality by COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean in the year 2020
Author(s) -
Jesús E. Andrades-Grassi,
L Cuesta-Herrera,
Guillermo Bianchi-Pérez,
Hilda Cristina Grassi,
Juan Ygnacio López-Hernández,
H A Torres-Mantilla
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
cuadernos geográficos de la universidad de granada/cuadernos geográficos
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.268
H-Index - 11
eISSN - 2340-0129
pISSN - 0210-5462
DOI - 10.30827/cuadgeo.v60i1.15492
Subject(s) - pandemic , covid-19 , cluster (spacecraft) , geography , stratification (seeds) , mediterranean climate , representation (politics) , risk stratification , demography , spatial analysis , poisson regression , econometrics , regional science , statistics , environmental health , disease , medicine , computer science , mathematics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , political science , sociology , pathology , population , biology , politics , remote sensing , law , archaeology , germination , cardiology , programming language , seed dormancy , botany , dormancy
Disease mapping seeks to represent the risk of a disease. This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of risk for pandemic COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean. Morbidity and mortality data for 54 countries in ratio format were used. Two hypotheses were considered, the first one is that the data are homogeneous and the second one is that the ratios are defined in a heterogeneous manner requiring the stratification on the basis of covariables and the methodology of Jenks’ intervals. Spatial risk models were applied as well as methods for the representation of clusters. The results show that the best representation is obtained with the Poisson-Gamma Model under stratification. The variations in the ratios are due to the individual policies of each country for the management of the pandemic. The cluster analysis shows that there is a high mortality process in Eastern Europe. The behavior of the pandemic should be evaluated in the space-time process as well as in other heterogeneous and highly unequal regions.