Open AccessMetode ARIMA untuk Memodelkan Volume Produksi Kelapa Sawit pada PT. SOCFINDO di Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang
Author(s) -
Wiwin Apriani,
Rahmi Hayati
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
jurnal absis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2655-4518
pISSN - 2654-8739
DOI - 10.30606/absis.v3i2.669
Subject(s) - autoregressive integrated moving average , palm oil , volume (thermodynamics) , mathematics , series (stratigraphy) , statistics , selection (genetic algorithm) , time series , computer science , environmental science , agricultural science , artificial intelligence , biology , physics , thermodynamics , paleontology
This study aims to create a mathematical model that can be used to predict the amount of oil palm that will be produced at PT. Socfindo in Aceh Tamiang Regency in the coming period. The data used is data on the amount of oil palm that is ready to be produced every month in 2012-2015. The method used is the ARIMA method. The selection of this method is based on the data used, namely time series data. Before carrying out further testing, first, ensure that the data used meets the stationary state. From the test results, it is found that the data used fulfills the stationary state, then it is found that the MA (1) model can be used to predict the time series data. Furthermore, we obtain a model that can be used to predict the volume of oil palm production at PT. Socfindo is: Z_t = a_t-0.4096a_ (t-1) +521.57 With a_t ~ N (0; 29192.72)