An Estimate of the Birth Rate in East and West Pakistan

This paper presents the results of an attempt at estimatingthe current birth rates in East and West Pakistan. In the absence of anadequate registration system, estimates of vital rates are dependent onalternative sources of data and various techniques of estimation. In thecase of Pakistan, where registration systems are extremely defective,the two major alternative sources of data are the Population GrowthEstimation (PGE) experiment and the (1951 and 1961) decennial censusesof population. The PGE is an attempt to acquire knowledge of the levelof birth and death rates in Pakistan by matching information obtained,for a sample of the population, from periodic surveys and continuousregistration of events as they occur [3, pp.37-65]. Preliminaryfindings from data collected in 1962 indicate, for total Pakistan, abirth rate of 56 and a death rate of 18, resulting in a growth rate of38 [11]. A subsequent report based on slightly modified data, andpresenting results for both sections of the country, indicates a birthrate of 58 and a death rate of 21 for East Pakistan, with a birth rateof 55 and a death rate of 22 for West Pakistani 12].There is reason tobelieve that the birth rate estimated by the PGE for total Pakistan is areasonably close approximation of the actual birth rate but that theestimated death rate is too low (and consequently, that the indicatedrate of growth is too high)