Open AccessDemographic Transition and Unwanted Fertility: A Fresh Assessment (The Mahbub Ul Haq Memorial Lecture)
Author(s) -
John B. Casterline
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
pakistan development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.154
H-Index - 26
ISSN - 0030-9729
DOI - 10.30541/v48i4ipp.387-421
Subject(s) - fertility , total fertility rate , demographic transition , family planning , demography , population , geography , demographic economics , economics , sociology , research methodology
The distinction between wanted and unwanted fertility has beencrucial in many of the more intense debates in recent decades over thenature of contemporary fertility declines and, in particular, thepotential impact of expanded provision of family planning services. In amuch-debated article published in 1994, Pritchett argues that decline indesired fertility is overwhelmingly the principal source of fertilitydecline, with the implication that family planning programmes are oflittle consequence. I revisit this debate drawing on a far larger bodyof survey data and, more importantly, an alternative fertilityspecification which relies on a non-conventional definition of wantedand unwanted fertility rates and which distinguishes rates andcomposition. Decompositions of fertility decline in the period from themid-1970s to the present are carried out for 44 countries. Thedecomposition results indicate that declines in unwanted fertility rateshave been at least as important, if not more important, than declines inwanted fertility rates. Surprisingly, shifts in the proportion of womenwanting to stop childbearing—i.e., changes in preference composition—hascontributed very little to fertility change in this period. Further,decline in wanted fertility and increases in non-marital exposure (duelargely to delayed entry into first marriage) have also made substantialcontributions, although on average they fall short of the contributionof declines in unwanted fertility rates. That declines in unwantedfertility have been an essential feature of contemporary fertilitydecline is the main conclusion from this research. This in turn opensthe door to new perspectives on fertility pre-, mid-, andpost-transition which recognises the inter-dependencies betweenfertility demand and unwanted fertility rates in the determination ofthe overall level of fertility. JEL classification: J11, J13, R11Keywords: Demography, Fertility, Family Planning, RegionalEconomics