Open AccessMean Ages at Parities: An Indirect Estimation
Author(s) -
Muhammad Afzal,
Mehrzad Kiani
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
pakistan development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.154
H-Index - 26
ISSN - 0030-9729
DOI - 10.30541/v34i4iipp.545-561
Subject(s) - fertility , parity (physics) , estimation , demography , population , birth rate , total fertility rate , statistics , research methodology , mathematics , economics , family planning , sociology , physics , management , particle physics
This paper is the outcome of a continuous concern that some ofthe basic demographic estimates provided by successive surveys in thecountry do not fulfil the expectation of use at their face value. In aprevious paper, an indirect assessment of the birth rates from thesesurveys was made on the basis of internal consistency of the relevantdata. It was pointed out in that paper that a rate being a ratio of thetwo estimates (e.g., the number of births and the population), anyvariation of emphasis on obtaining accuracy of the numerator ordenominator makes the rate unrealistic. For example, placing moreemphasis on a better coverage of births or deaths and a relatively lessor no corresponding effort on the measurement of population may lead tobiased estimates. Further, any inconsistency of such measurement betweendifferent surveys would make their utility for assessing even atime-trend questionable [Afzal et al. (1993)]. Whereas there is nosubstitute for realistically estimated birth rates (or fertility rates),an index based on relatively simple information which is less affectedby the variations in adjustments of births and population is the "MeanNumber of Children Ever Born per Woman".