A First Glance at the Pakistan Age Distribution

What follows is not only a summary of first impressions, butit is also limited to Pakistan as a whole, i.e., inter-regionaldifferentials are not inves¬tigated. Furthermore, the following commentsare limited to the youngest ages. In particular, no discussion isoffered of the age distribution at the oldest ages. In any case thelatter is partly a freak of the peculiar assumption on which it isdrawn, namely, that nobody in Pakistan lives beyond the age of eighty.These are very severe limitations and in part what follows is more inthe nature of advance notice of research to be undertaken than it is areport on substantive findings. Nevertheless, the initial impressionsare of a startling enough nature to justify disclosure at this stage,but on the distinct understanding that they may on further inquiry proveillusory. The observations of this note are based on the simple factthat the population of any area at any time is a function of fertility,mortality and migration prevailing in the past. There are two ways inwhich these three influences show themselves: on the age distributionand the rate of growth. In a way, it may be more helpful to say that agedistribution and growth are the other side of the same thing, namely,the combined product of fertility, mortality and migration. In fact,this is such a wide and all-em¬bracing statement that it may seem almostmeaningless. However, relatively recent developments in demographictheory furnish powerful tools for analysis of age distribution andgrowth. Evidence of growth, such as it is, is not considered in thisnote. As already indicated, the discussion is limited to agedistribution.